Assessment: Democrats hold a measurable national polling advantage, but control of Congress remains undecided.
With just one week remaining before the November 3 midterm elections, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 32%, while Democrats maintain a double-digit lead among registered voters asked which party they would support for Congress.
The findings suggest a difficult political environment for Republicans. However, national polling does not establish how individual congressional races will be decided.
What the Latest Poll Shows
The Reuters/Ipsos survey, completed October 26, found that Trump’s approval rating increased by one percentage point from the previous week’s record low.
Among registered voters, 47% said they would support a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 36% who favored a Republican.
The poll also found that 73% of respondents believed the cost of living was moving in the wrong direction.
These figures point to widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions and a national electoral advantage for Democrats.
But they do not guarantee a Democratic victory.
Why Republicans Still Have a Path to Victory
Congressional elections are decided district by district and state by state, not through a nationwide popular vote.
Republicans could retain control of one or both chambers even while trailing in national polling.
Several factors could influence the outcome:
- The geographic distribution of Democratic and Republican voters.
- The number of genuinely competitive congressional districts.
- Turnout among voters who do not regularly participate in midterm elections.
- Candidate quality and local political issues.
- The difference between stated voting preferences and ballots actually cast.
Republicans also enter the election holding narrow congressional majorities, meaning relatively small shifts in competitive races could determine control.
What Early Voting Tells Us
Early voting has increased substantially in several states with competitive Senate races.
An Associated Press analysis found that Texas early voting was running 74% ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterms. Kansas had more than doubled its early-vote total, while Maine, North Carolina and Ohio also recorded substantial increases.
Higher participation does not automatically favor either political party.
Likewise, party registration among early voters cannot establish which candidates those voters selected.
Early voting data measures participation. Election results determine winners.
What’s at Stake on November 3?
The election will determine which party controls the House of Representatives and Senate during the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
A Democratic House majority would give the party control of congressional committees and greater authority to investigate the administration.
A Democratic Senate majority would also affect the confirmation of federal judges and senior executive appointments.
If Republicans retain both chambers, the president would continue to benefit from unified party control of Congress, although narrow majorities could still complicate legislation.
Regardless of the outcome, major disputes over federal spending, economic policy and government oversight are likely to continue.
The On Points Politics Assessment
What the evidence establishes: The latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows weak presidential approval and a substantial Democratic advantage in national congressional voting preferences.
What remains uncertain: Whether those preferences will translate into enough victories in competitive House and Senate races to change control of Congress.
Bottom line: Democrats enter the final week with encouraging national polling, while Republicans retain viable paths to defending their congressional majorities. The decisive evidence will come from votes counted on November 3 and afterward—not from polls alone.
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Sources
- Reuters, October 26, 2026 — Trump approval rises from record low to 32% ahead of midterm election, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.
- Associated Press, October 2026 — Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in early voting.
- Reuters, October 25, 2026 — The midterm election outcomes that could shape Trump’s final two years.
On Points Politics — Facts First. Perspective Without Partisanship.
